Discrimination Options in the Near Term

Estimating midcourse threats and deriving optimal numbers of decoys produces an integrated picture of the trades between boost-phase attrition, midcourse defenses, and discrimination. Boost and midcourse interceptors can be effective, but are sensitive to light decoys. If discrimination is not available at the outset of deployment, enough interceptors must be purchased to meet both the RVs and decoys. This initial purchase can be so large that later development cannot offset its impact on discounted costs.